Tbilisi on Edge as Georgia’s Election Becomes a Battle for Its Soul
As night falls, Tbilisi teeters on the brink. Special police units flood the streets, tension is palpable, and Georgia’s future hangs in a fragile balance.
Tbilisi, GEORGIA — The air in Tbilisi is thick with tension, anticipation, and, most of all, the whiff of transformation. This weekend’s election in Georgia isn’t just another post-Soviet formality; it’s a tipping point. The decision made here will either pull the country closer to Europe or keep it teetering on the edge of authoritarian rule. And as citizens flock to polling stations, some under the wary gaze of police and others under the watchful eye of international observers, the stakes couldn’t be higher.
In the shadow of these election results looms Bidzina Ivanishvili, oligarch and powerbroker behind the ruling Georgian Dream party. Standing behind bulletproof glass at a rally just days before, Ivanishvili’s rhetoric didn’t hide his intent: Georgian Dream promises stability and a cold but “necessary” separation from the disruptive influences of Western liberalism. His message? Siding with Europe is a gamble, and Ivanishvili won’t let Georgia roll those dice without a fight.
Across Tbilisi, campaign posters layer a visual contradiction. Georgian Dream’s EU-inspired symbols are plastered side by side with grim images of Ukrainian destruction, subtly warning that the path to European integration could lead Georgia to a similar fate. Georgian Dream positions itself as a bulwark against war, while the pro-European opposition, a coalition of fractured parties under the banner “Coalition for Change”—are framed as reckless idealists ready to sell out Georgian peace for a Western fantasy.
Meanwhile, transparency in the electoral process is at a breaking point.
Reports from Transparency International’s “My Vote” coalition have turned up incidents of voter manipulation and outright intimidation. In Marneuli, observers faced physical assaults so severe they had to be evacuated, while in Tbilisi, violent groups circled polling stations, threatening both voters and officials alike. Cases of vote stuffing, forgery, and even mobile ballot boxes returned unsealed hint at an electoral process corrupted from within.
Ivanishvili’s Shadow: Georgia’s Choice in a Cage of Fear
For Ivanishvili and Georgian Dream, this election isn’t about policy; it’s a referendum on their grip on power. Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze’s brazen prediction of a “60% result” for Georgian Dream hours before the polls closed only feeds suspicion that this election is a foregone conclusion. The opposition has openly accused the ruling party of preparing a “managed democracy” scenario where the veneer of an election masks an unyielding monopoly on power.
In Tbilisi’s central avenues, the streets pulse with the energy of a divided nation. EU and Georgian flags wave side-by-side, symbols of a collective aspiration that 80 percent of Georgians claim to share. But those symbols clash with Georgian Dream’s fear-mongering rhetoric, a message that plays on the country’s bitter memories of past wars with Russia. The implication is unmissable: choose the EU and risk Russia’s wrath; stick with Georgian Dream and cling to a precarious peace.
In the countryside, near Russian-occupied territories, the stakes are even clearer. Citizens speak in whispers about Russian troops mere kilometers away, and Georgian Dream’s subtle messaging turns into a stark reminder: any flirtation with the West could provoke Moscow, a threat they say could bring violence back to Georgian soil.
Democracy on Life Support: A System Rigged to Fail
In the days leading up to the election, the illusion of democracy in Georgia has been stripped bare. Ivanishvili’s apparatus has intimidated journalists, silenced critics, and manipulated the judiciary, all while Western leaders look on with increasing frustration. French President Emmanuel Macron and EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell have openly warned Georgia that its EU aspirations are fading. And still, the EU’s response remains more rhetoric than action, leaving Georgian Dream emboldened and the opposition increasingly marginalised.
Adding to this volatile mix is Viktor Orbán, Hungary’s pro-Russian leader, whose congratulatory statement to Georgian Dream came just minutes after exit polls closed, signalling a premature endorsement. Orban’s hasty praise of Georgian Dream’s “overwhelming victory” is more than a simple congratulation, it’s an intentional alignment with a pro-Russian force on Europe’s eastern edge. By supporting Georgian Dream, Orban seeks to bolster a regional axis of influence that challenges EU principles and indirectly serves Moscow’s agenda. His swift endorsement underscores how external forces, eager to exploit Georgia's fragile democracy, are already positioning themselves to secure a foothold should Georgian Dream entrench its power further.
Even as the EU and U.S. issue cautious statements urging free elections, their reluctance to intervene risks handing Ivanishvili a victory by default. Pro-European parties, however united their rhetoric, struggle against a regime that has weaponised fear and state resources to tighten its grip on power.
A Reckoning at Europe’s Edge
As Georgia stands on the edge, this election feels less about immediate policies and more about identity and survival. Ivanishvili’s government has created a stark choice: the country can cling to stability under an authoritarian regime, or it can risk everything for the promise of democracy and European integration. For Georgia, this isn’t just an election—it’s an existential decision that will resonate far beyond Tbilisi’s borders, rippling through the corridors of Brussels and Washington, where leaders are watching nervously.
The people of Georgia are casting votes under the weight of fear and anticipation, their hopes mingling with the dread of what may come if the election is seen as rigged. As dawn breaks on election day, the question lingers: can Georgia, this beacon of democracy on Europe’s eastern border, survive the pull of authoritarianism? The answer, whatever it may be, will echo throughout Europe.
The Night Tense and Uncertain: A City Braces for Morning
As night falls on Tbilisi, the city sits on a knife’s edge. Reports of large-scale deployments of special police units circulate, casting an ominous shadow over the capital. Mobs allegedly linked to Georgian Dream have been seen attacking opposition activists, while tension crackles in the air like static. Driving through central Tbilisi, scattered groups—clad in hoodies and dark clothes—linger in the backstreets, their presence signaling the potential for conflict. What unfolds by morning remains uncertain: will the ruling party cede power, or will they dig in their heels? Will opposition leaders accept the results or contest them? The city stands poised at the brink, and every move tonight could ignite the simmering unrest. The stakes are high, and as observers, we remain watchful, knowing that any reckless decision could tip Georgia toward violence.